Type your address into any real estate site and you'll get an instant "estimate" of your home's value. Sometimes it's close. Often it's off by 5-10% - which on a $500,000 home is $25,000 to $50,000. Here's how pricing actually works when it's done right.
Why online estimates miss
Automated models are built on public records and past sales. They can't see:
- Condition. The model doesn't know you renovated the kitchen - or that the roof is at end-of-life.
- Layout and light. Two homes with identical stats can feel completely different inside.
- Micro-location. Backing onto a park versus backing onto a highway can swing value dramatically within the same zip code.
- Market momentum. Models lag. In a shifting market, they're pricing off conditions from months ago.
How a comparative market analysis works
When I price a home, I build a comparative market analysis (CMA) in three layers:
1. Closed sales
The foundation: what have genuinely similar homes actually sold for in the last 90 days? I adjust for differences - an extra bath, a smaller lot, a dated kitchen - the same way an appraiser does.
2. Active and pending listings
Closed sales tell us where the market was; active and pending listings tell us where it's going. Your competition is what's on the market right now.
3. Condition and presentation
Finally, an honest walk-through of your home. What will buyers celebrate? What will they nitpick? This is where we decide whether small investments before listing would change the price bracket entirely.
The pricing sweet spot
Price too high and you lose the critical first-two-weeks window - then chase the market down with cuts that make buyers wonder what's wrong. Price accurately (or a touch under, in a competitive market) and you create urgency that often bids the price up past what an aggressive list price would have achieved.
Curious about your home?
I offer a no-obligation home valuation - a real CMA, not an algorithm. Even if selling is a year or more away, knowing your number helps you plan. Request yours here.